Winter brings power shock | Demand surges at 1850 MW, supply sinks

Srinagar, Nov 16: With the onset of winter, the power situation in Kashmir has once again come under strain as electricity demand has touched 1850 MW – the highest so far this season.

According to official figures from the Kashmir Power Distribution Corporation Limited (KPDCL), the corporation is presently meeting an average demand of 1535 to 1800 MW, while the peak winter demand is expected to climb to around 2000 MW in the coming weeks as temperatures dip further.

KPDCL caters to around 12.44 lakh registered consumers, predominantly domestic, through a network of 338 receiving substations (33/11kV), 1292 high-tension (HT) feeders, and 47,886 distribution transformers spread across the Valley.

Officials said preparations are in place to meet the rising load through regulated curtailment schedules and grid management.

“Our load management plan ensures uninterrupted power to areas with better compliance and reduced losses,” a KPDCL official said.

As per KPDCL’s revised schedule, feeders with an Aggregate Technical and Commercial (AT&C) loss margin below 15 percent will experience no load shedding.

Areas where losses are between 15 and 40 percent face two hours of curtailment daily – one hour each in the morning and evening.

Feeders with losses above 40 percent are subject to four hours of cuts, while areas beyond the Loss Control Point (LCP) face six hours or more of scheduled power outages.

Officials said the curtailment policy aims to incentivise compliance and curb power theft, which remains rampant in some regions.

According to the Jammu and Kashmir Power Development Corporation (JKPDC), Jammu and Kashmir is currently importing over 2,180 MW of electricity from external generating companies to bridge the gap between demand and local generation.

Against an installed generation capacity of around 3500 MW, powerhouses in both state and central sectors are generating barely 900 to 1000 MW at present – a staggering 65 percent decline compared to the summer months.

Of the total installed capacity, 1140 MW comes from J&K’s own projects, including Baglihar I and II (900 MW) on the Chenab, Lower Jhelum (110 MW), and Upper Sindh-II (110 MW) on the Jhelum.

The remaining 2300 MW is contributed by central sector projects such as Salal, Dul Hasti, Uri-I and II, and Kishanganga, operated by the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC). However, with water levels in rivers dropping sharply in winter, power output from these hydroelectric projects reduces drastically.

“In peak winter, combined output from all plants in J&K falls to around 1000 MW, less than one-third of their total rated capacity,” a senior KPDCL official said. “The fall in river discharge directly impacts hydro generation, forcing us to depend on expensive power imports to maintain supply.”

Adding to the crisis are J&K’s high Aggregate Technical and Commercial (AT&C) losses, estimated at around 45 percent, among the highest in the country.

Officials say that nearly half of the electricity supplied either goes unbilled or remains unpaid.

“This severely affects our revenue recovery and compels the government to fund the deficit through budgetary support,” a KPDCL officer said. “Reducing AT&C losses is critical not only for improving the financial health of the sector but also for ensuring a steady supply.”

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