Jammu, Oct 4: Politics is not simple arithmetic – counting on numerical strength and number of votes. It is a game of probabilities wherein last moment strategies, contesting individuals – all these things count.
This was a crisp take of J&K Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) chief spokesperson Sunil Sethi, when confronted with a prickly query from Greater Kashmir about the prospects and strategies of his party for ensuing biennial elections to four vacant seats in Rajya Sabha from Jammu and Kashmir.
“Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will contest on all four seats during biennial Rajya Sabha elections and on three seats, the party will be seriously contesting to win. One seat, of course, has to go to the National Conference (NC) – that is seat number three. But seat number one, two and four will be contested and BJP will be making all efforts to win them,” Sethi responded to a question about the outcome of deliberations that took place in the Core Group meeting of J&K BJP on Saturday at the party office.
The meeting was presided over by the BJP national general secretary and in-charge J&K Affairs Tarun Chugh.
The biennial polls to the Rajya Sabha to elect four MPs from J&K will be held on October 24, 2025.
“I cannot disclose the strategy because that has to be made after the notification is issued. What will be the strategic issues – we cannot dwell upon that right now and it is not plausible. Today I told in the press (conference) that politics is not a game of arithmetic – It is not the number of seats or the number of votes that will decide. It is a game of probability. At the eleventh hour, what strategy will be in place; who will be fighting and against whom he will be fighting – all things will count,” Sethi said, when asked to explain his statements made in a post-core group meeting press conference.
“BJP is seriously contesting for three seats. We will be fighting on all four but earnestly we intend to fight for three wins (victories),” he said.
Is the party confident of winning three seats?
Sethi’s response to this question was, “I cannot say – we are confident or not confident but we are presently having our eyes set on three seats- one, two and four.”
In that scenario, how does the party (BJP) visualise the National Conference’s prospects? Answer was startling, to say the least.
“NC will be comfortably winning one seat – that is seat number three,” Sethi responded.
“Out of two seats going for combined elections under one notification, one seat has to go to the National Conference. That is the only surety with the National Conference. Other than that for two single seats, NC should have 45 persons (MLAs). They have, on their own, a strength of only 41 (MLAs). When they don’t have a strength of 45 on their own, then it (contest) is open – with different permutations and combinations,” Sethi explains ‘game of probability’.
But NC has support of five independents as well.
“Yes, but they are not NC members. I cannot discuss the strategy right now – what those five members will be doing or what…this is not for the first time it is going to happen,” Sethi countered.
Can there be a last-minute ‘coup’? – was another prickly poser, though in a lighter vein.
“Yes,… .there may be…last-moment… anything (can happen),” he chuckles, yet hastily adds, “See, that’s part of strategy which is not in discussion right now. It will be deliberated only after the notification.”
What was discussed during the meeting today (October 4, 2025)?
“Certainly not strategies as they can be formally discussed only after the notifications are issued. Even no names were discussed during the Core group meeting,” the J&K BJP chief spokesperson said.
When his attention was sought towards the fact that his (Sethi’s) name was also in circulation among the probable candidates, his reply was precise.
“That is speculation only. What does probable name mean? It is only the party that decides the names of candidates. It (speculation) is all just on social media. The party takes a final call vis-à-vis the selected persons on the basis of feedback from the local unit. It (feedback) has not gone today but in the coming days, it will be sent to the central command. Centre will then take a call on the list of probable candidates sent by the local unit with its feedback and decide as to who will contest,” Sethi explains.
Is there any deadline for the J&K unit to finalise its panel of candidates to be submitted to the Centre?
“No, we cannot say that right now. Today’s meeting was the first meeting – a kind of preliminary meeting. What will follow – may be- one more meeting. But that will be shared with you (media). We don’t keep things secret. If any development takes place on that – it will be shared,” he asserts.
Sethi stated that no discussion took place about Nagrota, Budgam assembly by-polls during Saturday’s (October 4) meeting.
“It was not discussed for the simple reason that no election notification so far was issued and there was neither any indication. Thus, there was no point in discussing that. It may be discussed during the next meeting as and when it happens,” Sethi said.
Regarding other agenda discussed in the meeting, J&K BJP chief spokesperson said, “That mainly related to the political scenario prevailing in J&K presently and other organizational matters.”
Earlier this afternoon, while addressing the press conference after the core group meeting, Sethi said, “During the meeting, the core group’s view was taken on the ensuing Rajya Sabha elections.”
He informed that Leader of the Opposition (LoP) in Legislative Assembly Sunil Sharma could not attend the meeting as he was engaged in some assignment away from J&K.
“Given the importance of RS elections, some issues, in particular, remained in focus during the deliberations. It was thoroughly discussed as in the present milieu what kind of person would be perfect to represent BJP in the Upper House. Deliberations would be conveyed to the party high command. On the feedback of the state unit, the Centre will decide who will be the candidate and on how many, the party will contest,” he said.
Sethi pointed out that no discussions took place on specific individuals. “All issues were discussed threadbare in the meeting. Once the party high command decides about the mandate, it will be acceptable to all.”
He clarified that the party was not in talks with any other political party in J&K so far regarding RS elections.
