As Ontario’s population grows at record pace and the province scrambles to ensure housing and other services can keep up, some political watchers believe there is one area the Ford government could leave people behind.
On Thursday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford emphatically ruled out making changes to the province’s electoral map, declaring the current set of 124 ridings more than adequate.
Ford dismissed the idea that Ontario would match riding changes made at the federal level, a constitutionally-required move triggered by census data and population changes.
“Why change something that works? It works, so it’s all good,” Ford said of the boundary changes at an unrelated event on Thursday.
“Just because the feds want to do it, jury-rig the ridings — it’s no secret people do that, governments do that — I’m not doing it. I’m going to leave the boundaries alone and people will decide if they want to move forward with our government.”
But political watchers suggest that failing to follow the federal process — or at least conduct an Ontario-led review of provincial ridings — will leave some voters behind.
In recent years, some areas have grown dramatically and others have seen their populations shrink. Immigration, deaths, shifting employment and other population drivers have left some ridings with vastly fewer residents than others.
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In some ridings, like Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Spadina-Fort York and Brampton West, populations have grown over the past decade. Other areas, like Scarborough North and Don Valley East, have either shrunk or remain significantly smaller.
Those population changes, Ontario-based strategist and pollster David Valentin believes, will mean a “real disparity” between different residents depending on what riding they live in.
“If you’re trying to get a hold of your MPP, if you’re trying to get assistance with your casework or casefile in one of the larger districts you might have a much harder time,” he said.
“More importantly, your vote is going to count for less. And we live in a democracy where one vote is equal to one vote. That’s certainly not going to be the case in some of these ridings that are chock full of voters now.”
Pressed on whether he was trying to keep costs down by keeping the boundaries as they are, rather than adding more seats, as the federal government will do, Ford said he simply didn’t want to touch the issue.
“We’re just leaving it alone, we just aren’t touching the boundaries, less politicians, the better it is,” he said.
Nelson Wiseman, a political professor at the University of Toronto, said Ford “does not know what he is talking about” and said the electoral map in Ontario urgently needs to be redrawn.
“It is broken, it is broken,” he told Global News. “It’s broken because if you never change the boundaries, that means some constituents will end up having two or three times as many people as other constituencies. Is that fair?”
Both the Ontario Liberals and the Ontario NDP said they looked forward to contesting the next election against Ford and the Progressive Conservatives regardless of which boundaries are used.
“He can try to game the system with threats of an early election or refusing to update riding boundaries to match population trends if he wants,” Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie said in a statement. “But regardless of what games he plays, Ontario’s Liberals will be ready to beat him in the next election, whenever it comes.”
Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles pointed out Ford had already shown he was willing to make changes when he slashed the size of Toronto city council.
“It seems Ford is dismissing boundary changes so he can keep his options open when it comes to calling an early election,” Stiles said, adding she is in favour of a regular review of rings to ensure they’re reasonable.
Valentin and Wiseman pointed out that Ontario could create its own process, independent from the federal government, to ensure that boundary changes work at the local level.
“If you don’t want politicians gerrymandering, set up something that’s independent,” Wiseman said.
© 2024 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
