The Alberta government is forecasting a $4.6-billion surplus this fiscal year, but Finance Minister Nate Horner says Alberta’s in for a “challenging” future.
The government’s second-quarter fiscal update says just $2.9 billion of that surplus is expected to be cash, which would be split between paying down debt and the Heritage Savings Trust Fund.
It says the surplus is largely the result of higher-than-expected income tax revenue thanks to Alberta’s sharp population growth and oil and gas royalties.
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But the fiscal update also says “global economic conditions” are presenting risks for the province’s finances.
As such the government has dropped its revenue expectations for the average price of its benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil for the remainder of the fiscal year by US$2.50 per barrel from the US$76.50 price point expected in the first-quarter update.
The government also says it is planning for population growth to drop significantly next year, and the provincial unemployment rate is expected to grow.
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